【雅思课外精读】经济学人：Turkeys and blockbusters 胜者为王，败者为寇

　　【雅思课外精读】经济学人：Turkeys and blockbusters 胜者为王，败者为寇

　　Turkeys and blockbusters

　　胜者为王，败者为寇

　　Why and how the paths of developing economies are set to diverge

　　发展中经济体势将分流的原因和方式

　　WISE investors know that winning bets shine more brightly if they are not overshadowed by big loss-making trades. The way in which capital flowed to and from emerging markets in recent years meant that such discriminationwent out of the window. Now, however, change is coming.

　　精明的投资者知道，如果不被大笔亏损的交易蒙上阴云，那些赢得的赌注会更加熠熠生辉。近年来新兴市场资本流入和流出的方式表明没人再把这种鉴别力当回事了。然而，如今变化即将来临。

　　Two influences in particular are behind this. The first is the retreat by America’s Federal Reserve from ultra-loose monetary policy. Cheap credit gave good and bad economies alike a boost; as its effect fades, capital allocation will become more disciplined. Thepeculiar traits of each emerging market, from macroeconomic management to productivity growth, will have a greater say in how its economy performs as well as how investors view it. The second shift is in America’s trade policy, which is taking a worrying turn towards economic nationalism—a course whose effects on emerging economies will differ depending on their location and trade patterns. As a result, the reasons for success or failure among emerging markets may be quite different from the recent past.

　　这背后有两大因素的影响尤为突出。第一是美联储退出超宽松货币政策。廉价信货对好的和坏的经济体有相似的促进作用，随着这一效应逐渐消失，资本配置将变得更加严格。每个新兴市场的独特特征，从宏观经济管理到生产力增长，都将对其经济表现以及投资者对它的态度产生更大的影响。第二个因素是美国的贸易政策，它正转向经济民族主义，令人担忧。这种转变对新兴经济体的影响将因其地理位置和贸易模式的差异而有所不同。因此，新兴市场成功或失败的原因可能会与不久以前大不相同。

　　Begin with macroeconomic management, in which there is already a growing divergence. Turkey is at one end of the spectrum. Despite its fiscal prudence, it has other ills that have long made the cautious wary of emerging markets, including a big trade deficit financed by hot money and lots of foreign-currency debt. It also suffers high inflation. The central bank has been slow to tackle this and seems cowed by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the president, who insists that high interest rates cause inflation.

　　先来看宏观经济管理。在这方面，新兴市场间的差异已经越来越大。土耳其即代表着一个极端。尽管土耳其财政政策稳健，但还是存在着其他长期以来让谨慎的投资者对新兴市场保持警惕的弊病，包括依靠热钱和大量外汇债务来填补的巨额贸易赤字。土耳其还饱受高通胀之苦，其央行在对付这一问题上一直动作缓慢，似乎畏惧坚持认为高利率会导致通胀的总统埃尔多安。

　　Contrast this with progress elsewhere. Little more than a year ago, South Africa was bracketed with Turkey as an emerging market to avoid. Its president, Jacob Zuma, attempted to subvert the Treasury, a bastion of orthodoxy. He failed. South Africa’s central bank has also stuck to its inflationmandate in the face of a slowing economy and weaker rand. Despite a brutal recession, Brazil’s central bank has also concentrated on pulling inflation back towards its goal of 4.5%; the country is getting to grips with the fiscal laxity which is the source of much of its economic misery. With interest rates at 13%, there is ample room to ease monetary policy. Central banks in Russia and India have also run fairly tight monetary policies. As inflation falls further, they will have scope to cut interest rates.

　　再将土耳其的情况与其他国家的进展做一下对比。仅仅一年多前，南非和土耳其一样，被划为投资者应当绕道的新兴市场。南非总统祖马（Jacob Zuma)企图颠覆财政部这一正统派的堡垒，但失败了。南非的央行在经济放缓和兰特疲弱的情况下，仍然坚持抑制通胀。巴西尽管经历了严重的经济衰退，其央行同样集中力量希望将通胀水平拉回到 4.5°/。的目标；巴西正在认真解决财政政策过于宽松的问题，这是其大部分经济问题的根源。巴西目前的利率为 13%，有足够的空间放宽货币政策。俄罗斯和印度的央行也一直执行着相当紧缩的货币政策。随着通胀进一步下降，它们将迎来降息的空间。

　　——节选自《经济学人》