【雅思课外精读】艰难的2020年，德国如何减少失业？

　　【雅思课外精读】艰难的2020年，德国如何减少失业？*注：本文摘自6月20日《经济学人》

　　Why furlough works

　　为什么无薪假能够起作用

　　Germany spends big to save jobs

　　德国斥巨资来挽救就业

　　Other Europeans are following its example

　　其他欧洲国家争相效仿

　　1. FOR MANY economists, the model for a covid-19 furloughscheme has been Germany’s. It already had a good record, managing to avoid big job losses during the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Then, the German government paid the bulk of wages of people who had temporarily stopped working, rather than letting their employers fire them altogether. It did not prevent a nasty recession, but remarkably few jobs were lost.

　　对许多经济学家来说，新冠无薪假计划是德国独有的。该计划已经发挥作用，在2008-09年全球金融危机期间成功避免了大量失业。当时，德国政府为那些暂时停工的人支付了大部分工资，而不是任由他们被解雇。这并没有阻止严重的经济衰退，但却成功减少失业。

　　2. Can other countries successfully copy Germany? German economists answer “Jein”—both yes and no. First of all, Kurzarbeit (Germany’s furlough scheme) is being tested on anunprecedented scale. Whereas at the peak of the financial crisis in May 2009 just under 1.5m German workers were furloughed, 7.3m employees in Germany were on short-term work in May, according to the Institute for Economic Research, a think-tank.

　　其他国家能否成功复制德国的计划？德国经济学家的答案是“Jein”，即不确定。首先，Kurzarbeit(德国的休假计划)正在接受前所未有的测试。根据智库德国经济研究所的数据，在2009年5月金融危机最严重的的时候，只有不到150万德国工人被迫休无薪假，有730万人有短期工作。

　　3. Second, no one knows when the effects of the pandemic will end, or whether there will be a second wave, whereas during the financial crisis it was generally (and rightly) assumed that the recession would be brutal but short. Also, Germany’s scheme dovetailed well with other aspects of German corporate governance, such as workers’ representation on company boards. These stopped bosses firing employees as soon as the economy turned sour.

　　其次，没有人知道疫情何时结束，也没人知道疫情是否会出现第二波高峰，而在金融危机期间，人们普遍认为衰退很残酷但是持续时间很短。此外，德国的计划和德国企业管理模式是很吻合的，比如员工在公司董事会中有代表权，这些措施阻止企业在经济形势恶化的时候解雇员工。

　　4. Nearly all pundits agree that Kurzarbeit is a useful tool. Alexander Herzog-Stein of the Hans Böckler Institute, a think-tank close to trade unions, likens it to a bridge—“but there must be a shore on the other side.” The German scheme is limited to 12 months. The state usually pays 60% of net wages (67% for employees with children), though the government recently decided to raise those contributions incrementally to a maximum of 80% (and 87%) for employees who have been furloughed for seven months or more. During the financial crisis many furloughed workers had well-paid jobs at manufacturing plants. This time, many come from low-paid jobs in retail or hospitality. They would find it hard to make ends meet on 60% of their pay.

　　几乎所有专家都认为Kurzarbeit计划很有用。与工会联系紧密的智库Hans Bockler Institute的Alexander Herzog-Stein将其比作一座桥——“但桥的另一边必须有岸。”“这个计划最多能支持12个月。政府通常会支付净工资的60%(有孩子的员工为67%)，不过政府最近决定逐步提高对休假7个月或以上的员工的补贴至最高80%(和87%)。在金融危机期间，许多被迫休假的员工都是制造厂的，待遇优厚。而这一次，他们大多是在低收入的零售或者酒店行业工作。人们会发现很难用自己收入的60%来维持生活。

　　5. The German scheme has been doing the trick. The registered unemployment rate rose to 6.3% in May, up from 5.8% in April. But mass lay-offs have been avoided. The same goes for furlough programmes in France, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain. France’s chômage partiel was benefiting 8.6m workers at the end of April. The state pays up to 84% of net salary, to a ceiling of €4,608 a month. Employees on the minimum wage still get the full amount. As with the German scheme, it is flexible: firms can claim just a part of a worker’s salary if he or she is putting in reduced hours.

　　德国的计划一直在发挥作用。5月份失业率升至6.3%，高于4月份的5.8%。但是没有出现大规模失业。法国、意大利、荷兰和西班牙也采取了休假计划，避免了大规模失业。截至4月底，法国采取的部分失业计划使860万人受益。法国政府支付工资净额的84%，最高每月4608欧元。领取最低工资的员工仍然可以拿到全额工资。与德国的计划一样，法国的失业救济计划是灵活的：如果工人减少工作时间，公司可以只付工资的一部分。

　　6. These generous schemes in France and Germany have attracted crooks. The French labour ministry has spotted several types of fraud. Some companies have claimed subsidised wages for employees who have kept working (sometimes even on overtime). Others have submitted claims for more than employees actually earn. By some estimates, as much as 10% of furlough pay is lost to fraud. Muriel Pénicaud, France’s labour minister, has announced that 50,000 companies’ returns will be scrutinised until the end of the summer.

　　法国和德国这些慷慨的失业计划招来了一些骗子。法国劳工部已经发现了几种类型的欺诈行为。一些公司要求对继续工作(有时甚至加班)的员工提供补贴工资。还有一些公司提交的工资要求超过了员工的实际收入。据估计，多达10%的无薪假期工资都因欺诈而损失了。法国劳工部长穆里尔•佩西诺(Muriel Penicaud)宣布，在今年夏末之前，将对5万家公司的收益进行详细审查。

　　7. Those sceptical of furlough schemes argue that they are costly and keep alive badly run companies that should die. The cost is indeed gargantuan, but so is the cost of deep recessions. The usual German Kurzarbeit pay is the equivalent of what, on average, people younger than 50 are paid in their first year at work. Some workers would stay in employment anyway, so the payment is wasted on them. Yet it is probably worth subsidising them, saving tens of thousands of jobs, even if that keeps some corporate duds alive for a bit longer.

　　那些对休假计划持怀疑态度的人认为，休假计划成本太高，而且还让那些本应倒闭的公司得以继续经营。休假计划的花费确实巨大，但是深度衰退的代价更大。平均来看，德国员工的休假工资相当于50岁以下的人第一年的工资。一些人无论如何都会继续工作，所以资助工资对他们来说是一种浪费。然而，对他们进行补贴或许是值得的，因为这样可以保住数万个岗位，虽然这样会让那些庸才继续存活。

　　8. Oliver Stettes of the Cologne Institute for Economic Research says Austria illustrates why such schemes are working. The registered unemployment rate there rose to 12.8% in April (5.5 percentage points more than a year before). However, once a much improved scheme was brought in, replacing up to 90% of wages, the jobless rate steadied at 11.5% in May. Short-time work schemes are a useful way to bridge a short period of low demand for economies that do not suffer from fundamental structural weaknesses. Depending on the shape of the recovery, unemployment in euro-zone countries may eventually rise once the money runs out—but less than it would have done without furlough schemes.

　　科隆经济研究所(Cologne Institute for Economic Research)的奥利弗•斯泰特斯(Oliver Stettes)表示，奥地利的情况说明了这些计划为什么会奏效。四月份登记失业率上升到12.8%(比一年前上升5.5个百分点)。然而，该计划将工资补贴提升至90%，失业率在5月份稳定在11.5%。对于那些基本结构没有受创的经济体来说，短期的工作计划是弥补短期需求的有效途径。受经济复苏形式影响，一旦资金耗尽，欧元区国家的失业率可能会上升，但是如果没有休假计划，失业率会上升更快。