【雅思课外精读】疫情之下，时尚界发生了哪些剧变

　　【雅思课外精读】疫情之下，时尚界发生了哪些剧变  *注：本文摘自6月20日《经济学人》

　　Fashion victims

　　为时尚所累

　　How slow times in the luxury world will separate the bling from the chaff

　　奢侈品世界缓慢地将精华和糟粕区分开来

　　Posh purveyors are having to rethink their business model in a hurry

　　时尚界不得不反思他们的商业模式

　　1. MILAN, PARIS or New York this time of year would usually be teeming with fashionistasscrambling to get from the Balenciaga show to the Chanel party. Not in 2020. Fashion weeks have been cancelled, repurposed as posh catwalk webinars. Shops selling Hermès ties and Prada pumps are only just reopening, wondering what to do with stock of pre-covid-19 vintage. Instagram influencers normally on hand to feed the hype have nothing to snap.

　　往年这个时候，米兰、巴黎和纽约都挤满了从巴黎世家时装秀上赶来参加香奈儿时装秀的时尚达人。但是今年不一样。时装周已经改为时尚网络研讨会。售卖爱马仕领带和普拉达高跟鞋的店铺也才重新营业，他们都不知道该如何处理那些因为新冠疫情而积压起来的货物。而ins上的时尚网红们也没有什么可以分享的新品。

　　2. The world of personal luxury goods—from handbags and haute couture to diamond rings and pricey Swiss watches—has been in hibernation. At the height of the pandemic between March and May sales slumped by 75% or so on a year earlier, according to the Boston Consulting Group. They have slowly picked up as Asia, then Europe and America, started reopening. Even so, the outlook for the luxury world is far from glittering.

　　个人奢侈品，包括手提包、高级时装、钻戒和瑞士手表，都进入了淡季。根据波士顿咨询集团的数据，在疫情最严重的三月到五月期间，销售量同比下降了75%左右。随着亚洲、欧洲和美国开始重新开放，奢侈品世界已经慢慢复苏。即便如此，奢侈品行业的前景也很黯淡。

　　3. The global recession hangs over a sector fuelled by consumer confidence. Beyond that short-term shock, the industry is facing an overhaul in how its baubles are made, where they are sold and to whom. Trends once expected to play out over a decade may unfold in mere quarters. Rapid change has set nerves jangling in a business meant to exude timeless tradition.

　　全球衰退笼罩着这个由消费者信心推动的行业。除了短期的冲击之外，在其产品制造方式、销售地点和顾客等方面，奢侈品行业也面临着一场彻底的变革。一度被认为将会在十年内才能显现出来的趋势，在短短的几个季度就表现了出来。在这个本应彰显永恒传统的行业，迅速的变化让人紧张。

　　4. Start with who is buying and where. Although most purveyors of luxury are European (with America home to some of the lesser marques), most of their customers come from Asia. Asians bought more than half of the €281bn ($315bn) in bling sold last year. Chinese buyers alone have gone from 1% of purchases in 2000 to 35% last year, according to Bain, anotherconsultancy. But most of that—perhaps 70%—was purchased overseas, often on jaunts to Europe.

　　第一方面是市场和顾客的问题。尽管大多数奢侈品生产商都在欧洲（美国主要是一些比较小的品牌），但是奢侈品的大多数顾客都来自亚洲。去年售出的2810亿欧元(合3150亿美元)珠宝中，亚洲人购买了一半以上。另一家咨询公司贝恩(Bain)的数据显示，仅中国顾客就从2000年占总购买量的1%上升到去年的35%。其中大部分(大约70%)是亚洲人在海外购买的，通常是在他们去欧洲的旅行中购买的。

　　5. Unless intercontinental tourism rebounds faster than expected, new ways will have to be found to get Euro-chic into Chinese hands. Firms hope that shopping sprees will simply move from Paris to Shanghai. In the short run, this might boost margins: the likes of Louis Vuitton (part of LVMH, the biggest luxury group) and Gucci (part of Kering, another French giant) charge a third more in China than in Europe for the same products. Closing a few flagship stores in high-renttourism hotspots such as Paris or Milan, which usually sell half their stock to tourists, could save firms money in property costs.

　　除非洲际旅游能够快速恢复，否则就必须找到新方法让中国人能够买到奢侈品。企业希望购物狂潮能够从巴黎转移到上海。短期来看，这可能会提高利润：向路易威登和古驰这样的品牌，在中国的售价比在欧洲高出三分之一。（路易威登属于世界最大的奢侈品集团酩悦·轩尼诗－路易·威登集团，而古驰属于另一家法国奢侈品巨头）。在巴黎或者米兰等租金比较高的旅游热点关闭几家将存货卖给游客的旗舰店或许可以为企业节省一些房地产开支。

　　6. Yet any boost to margins may be short-lived. The difference between European and Chinese prices has narrowed. Those in China have been declining as apps make international price comparisons easier and firms woo shoppers facing ever more restrictions from Chinese authorities on bringing luxury items home from abroad. And more shops on the mainland, in cities they would once have deemed déclassé, may diminish the aura of exclusivity that shopping on Avenue Montaigne in Paris or New York’s Fifth Avenue confers. The de factodiscounts were aimed at luring buyers to the West precisely for that reason.

　　然而，任何提振利润的措施都不是长久的。由于各种APP使得国际间的比价更加容易，而且，中国政府对国外购买奢侈品的限制也越来越多，欧洲和中国之间的价格差距已经缩小。此外，那些曾被视为“低档”的中国城市里，也出现了越来越多的奢侈品店，这可能会削弱在巴黎蒙田大道(Avenue Montaigne)或纽约第五大道(Fifth Avenue)购物所带来的奢华气息。欧洲的低价吸引顾客去购物也是出于这个原因。

　　7. The pandemic has accelerated other trends. Online sales of luxury goods, at 7-8% of the total on average, are around half those of mass-market fashion retailers like H&M and Zara. The closure of shops has, predictably, eased some of the reservations brands may have about selling their wares on the internet. LVMH has said online purchases are “significantly higher” as a share of sales than pre-pandemic. Sales through department stores—which are in terrible financial shape, notably in America—are also likely to shrink.

　　疫情也加速了其他趋势。奢侈品的网上销售额平均占总销售额的7-8%，大约是H&M和Zara等快时尚品牌的一半。不出所料，实体店的关闭促进了一些商品的线上销售。路威酩轩称，与疫情前相比，网上销售所占比例“显著提高”。实体店的销售状况很糟，尤其是在美国。

　　8. Meanwhile, costs may rise. Though they love to show off in-house “artisans” stitching handbags and the like, even the poshest maisons quietly outsource some of their production. Many rely on outsiders for more than half their products. These suppliers are often small family firms in Italy, which went into the pandemic with slim margins and slimmer financial buffers. Luxury groups are now having to assist them financially in a hurry lest they disappear for good.

　　与此同时，成本可能会上升。尽管奢侈品店喜欢展现自己 “工匠”缝制的手袋等商品，即使是最大的奢侈品商也悄悄外包了一些生产。许多公司一半以上的产品依赖外包。这些外包提供商大多是一些意大利的小型家族企业，在疫情期间他们利润微薄，所有的缓冲资金也很少。奢侈品集团现在不得不给他们提供资金支持，以免他们倒闭。

　　9. All this paints a drab financial picture. Sales are forecast to fall by a third in 2020, and recover only by 2022 at the earliest. That will crimp margins, since luxury firms’ costs are largely fixed. Rents must still be paid and brands advertised—the poshest ones spend the best part of $1bn a year on marketing—even as sales droop.

　　所有这些都描绘了奢侈品行业的黯淡前景。预计2020年销量将下降三分之一，最早也要到2022年才能恢复。这将抑制利润，因为奢侈品公司的成本基本上是固定的。即使在销售额下降的情况下，租金仍然要支付，品牌也要做广告——大的奢侈品品牌每年在广告宣传上要花费10亿美元。

　　10. In many industries, squished margins and falling sales might lead to a slew of takeovers. Few expect that to happen in luxury. Most of the big players have healthy balance-sheets and are expected to find ways to return to profitability (see chart 2). Many smaller marques are controlled by founders or their families, who are loth to sell in a downturn. If anything, consolidation might slow; all eyes are on whether LVMH will complete its $17bn takeover of Tiffany, an American jeweller, agreed weeks before covid-19 struck.

　　在许多行业，利润缩水和销售额下降可能会导致大量收购。很少有人认为奢侈品行业会出现这种情况。大多数大型奢侈品公司资产负债表表现良好，并有望找到恢复盈利的方法(见表2)。许多小型品牌由创始人或家族控制，他们也不愿在低迷时期售卖自己的品牌。相反，合并可能会放缓；焦点集中在路易威登能否完成其对美国珠宝生产公司Tiffany 170亿美元的收购，此次收购是在新冠疫情爆发前几周达成的。

　　11. Not all parts of the industry are equally vulnerable. In a crisis, buyers stick to more established brands. “They want the best of the best,” says Luca Solca of Bernstein, a broker. Good news, then, for the likes of Louis Vuitton and Chanel, which have in fact pushed up prices in recent months. In contrast, brands hoping for a turnaround in their fortunes—Burberry is aperennial candidate—are less able to gain the attention.

　　并非奢侈品行业的每一个环节都如此脆弱。在危机中，顾客会选择更加成熟的品牌。Bernstein经纪人卢卡•索尔卡说:“他们想优中选优。”对于路易威登(Louis Vuitton)和香奈儿(Chanel)等品牌来说，这是个好消息。事实上，近几个月来，它们推高了奢侈品价格。相比之下，作为常年候选的品牌，Burberry渴望扭转命运，但是它不太可能会引起关注。

　　12. Some segments have also been hit harder than others. Perfumes and cosmetics have held up best: a lockdown is no reason to forgo a skincare regime, apparently. Fashion houses face bigger problems, as cooped-up fashionistas see less need to replenish their wardrobes. Worse, unlike jewellery or handbags, surplus stock of apparel is rapidly going out of style. Overt discounts are frowned upon in luxury for fear of cheapening precious brands. Most at risk are fancy watchmakers like Richemont, which attract sellers at fairs and trade shows that have now been cancelled.

　　奢侈品行业的一些部分受到的冲击可能更大。香水和化妆品未受影响：显然，封锁并不是放弃护肤品的理由。时装公司面临着更大的危机，因为爱好打扮的时尚人士认为补充衣橱的必要性减少了。更糟糕的是，与珠宝或手袋不同，剩余下来的服装正在迅速过时。在奢侈品行业，公开的折扣是不受欢迎的，因为他们担心这会使宝贵的品牌贬值。风险最大的是历峰(Richemont)等靠展会吸引顾客的高档手表制造商。

　　13. The question is whether amid this shake-up the luxury world can keep its grip on the wallets of the world’s big spenders. Fears that consumers would opt for a more ascetic post-pandemic future are dissipating: reports of “revenge shopping” as China emerged from lockdown implies that rich folks’ appetite for status symbols remains intact. But these worries are being replaced by those over Chinese shoppers developing a taste for nascent local brands, at the expense of the old-world stalwarts.

　　关键是，在这场变革中，奢侈品行业能否牢牢控制那些阔人的钱包。对消费者未来或许购买欲会下降的担忧正在消散：随着中国从疫情中恢复，关于“报复式消费”的报道意味着富人对于社会地位象征的欲望没有改变。不过，现在这种担忧变为对人们对中国新兴本土品牌感兴趣的担忧所取代，因为这种兴趣是以牺牲欧洲奢侈品世界的中坚企业为代价的。

　　14. The biggest potential changes may concern the designers themselves. By late June the most exalted would normally start displaying autumn and winter collections in shop windows. This year they will make up for lost time by selling their summer season through the summer, as might seem sensible anyway. Giorgio Armani, an Italian veteran, has argued this should become the new norm. What a bold fashion statement that would be.

　　最大的变化可能与奢侈品本身有关。6月底，时尚大佬通常开始在商店橱窗中展示秋冬系列商品。今年，他们通过在夏季出售他们的夏季新品来争取时间，无论如何这似乎都是明智的。意大利时装设计师乔治•阿玛尼(Giorgio Armani)认为，这可能成为一种新规范。那将是多么大胆的时尚宣言啊。