经济学人文章分析：为什么说美国堕胎权之争与性别无关？

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背景介绍：今年5月初，一份由美国最高法院大法官阿利托执笔的多数意见草案泄漏在美国公众面前，随后激起轩然大波，因为该草案预示着最高法院大概率将会推翻1973年所判定的罗诉韦德案。这意味着，女性堕胎权正面临被撤销的边缘。

‍Church and choice教派与选择

Religion, not gender, is the best predictor of views on abortion

宗教（而非性别）是对堕胎权之争最好的预示

Shocked by a draft Supreme Court opinion that would allow states to ban abortion, American liberals are hunting for silver linings. Some hope that women enraged by the loss of Roe v Wade will vote en masse for Democrats in November.

美国自由主义者对最高法院一份允许各州禁止堕胎的意见草案感到震惊，他们正在寻找一线希望。一些人希望，因罗伊韦德案被推翻而愤怒的女性会在11月投票支持民主党。

That would put Republicans in swing states at risk. However, liberal activists focus solely on the gender gap at their peril: women are almost as likely as men to oppose abortion. The most reliable backers of abortion rights are the 30% of Americans with no religious affiliation.

这将使摇摆州的共和党人陷于危险之中。然而，自由主义活动家只关注性别差异，这对他们来说很危险：女性几乎和男性一样反对堕胎。堕胎权最可靠的支持者是 30% 没有宗教信仰的美国人。

Views on abortion have been fairly stable over time. Big majorities favour legal abortion in cases of rape or health risks. Since 2002 the share of participants in the General Social Survey, a large poll, who say abortion, for any reason, should be legal has climbed from 40% to 54%. Compared with the change in support for gay marriage, however, this increase looks modest.

随着时间的推移，人们对堕胎的看法一直没什么变化。绝大多数人赞成在强奸或存在健康风险的情况下合法堕胎。自2002年以来，在“综合社会调查”(一项大型民意调查)中，认为无论出于何种原因堕胎都应该合法的受访者比例从40%攀升至54%。然而，与同性婚姻支持率的变化相比，这一增长看起来并不大。

Although state-level polls on abortion are sparse, public opinion in each state can be estimated using demographic and geographic patterns in national surveys. This method shows that just 12 of the 50 states have majorities that want to ban abortion, or allow it only if the mother’s life is at risk.

尽管各州关于堕胎的民意调查很少，但每个州的民意可以通过全国调查中的人口和地理分布模式来估计。这种方法表明，在美国50个州中，只有12个州是多数人希望禁止堕胎，或只在母亲存在生命危险的情况下允许堕胎。

In contrast, 19 states have laws limiting abortion that would take effect the day Roe is reversed. They include Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin, where an estimated 60% of people favour abortion rights.

相比之下，19个州有限制堕胎的法律，这些法律将在罗伊案被推翻之日生效。其中包括亚利桑那州、密歇根州和威斯康星州，这些州估计有60%的人支持堕胎权。

Voters likely to mourn the loss of Roe can be targeted demographically. The gender gap in views on abortion is modest, at six percentage points. Religion and race, in contrast, account for up to 65 points.

倾向于为罗伊案失败而悲伤的选民可能会成为人口统计的目标。在对堕胎问题的看法上，性别差异并不大，仅为6个百分点。相比之下，宗教和种族可以占到65%。

In a sample of 13,659 people surveyed by YouGov, a pollster, just 28% of white or older Hispanic evangelicals wanted abortion to be “always” or “mostly” legal. Despite the Catholic and Orthodox churches’ opposition, 53% of whites and 65% of Hispanics in these groups favoured abortion rights.

民意调查机构 YouGov 对13659人进行了抽样调查，其中只有28%的白人或年长的西班牙福音派教徒希望堕胎“总是”或“大部分”合法。尽管天主教和东正教会反对，但这些群体中 53% 的白人和 65% 的西班牙裔支持堕胎权。

Among agnostics and people who did not list a religion, the shares were 61% for those who did not attend college, and 79% for people who did. Other strong backers were Jews (76%) and atheists (a hefty92%).

在不可知论者和没有列出宗教信仰的人中，没有上过大学的人支持堕胎权的比例为61%，上过大学的人的比例是79%。其他强有力的支持者是犹太人（76%）和无神论者（高达92%）。

America’s political coalitions reflect these cleavagesalready. However, whites who are non-evangelical Protestants, or who are not religiously affiliated and lack college degrees, favour abortion rights more than they do Democratic candidates. Their loyalty may now be up for grabs.

美国的政治联盟已经反映了这些分歧。然而，非福音派新教徒或无宗教信仰且没上过大学的白人比民主党候选人更支持堕胎权。他们的立场如今或许有待争夺。

(红色标注词为重难点词汇)

重难点词汇：

affiliation [əˌfɪliˈeɪʃn] n. 归属；加盟

hefty [ˈhefti] adj. 笨重的；相当大的；有力的

cleavage [ˈkliːvɪdʒ] n. 劈开；分裂